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By Jonah Grinkewitz 

Although flooding associated with Hurricane Erin has come and gone, a recent survey of Hampton Roads residents shows that they think it is an issue that will persist for years to come. 

As part of the 2025 Life in Hampton Roads Survey conducted by �Թϱ���’s Social Science Research Center and funded by the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy, residents were asked to describe the risk to their city, neighborhood and home or property due to severe flooding from sea level rise over the next 30 years. 

“We wanted to understand residents’ perceptions of their own risks to flooding and if flooding information was a factor in their decision making about housing,” said Tancy Vandecar-Burdin, Ph.D., director of the Social Science Research Center. 

Nearly half of respondents reported some risk of severe flooding to their city and 22.2% believe their city is at a high risk. Close to 40% believe there is some risk to their neighborhood with 14.4% saying theirs will be at high risk over the next 30 years. Residents were also asked to report the risk of flooding to their homes or properties, and 32.8% think theirs will be at some risk and 10% indicated high risk. 

Norfolk and Portsmouth residents were the most likely to report a high risk of severe flooding in the next 30 years at 37% followed by Virgina Beach at 27.9%.  

"It seems residents are affirming the observation of increasing sunny day flooding," said Tom Allen, professor of geography. "Even if these are still very localized flood effects, they have indirect impacts on mobility, school bus routes, mail and deliveries, and commuting. Nearly half recognize some risk of severe flooding to their cities and neighborhoods, so this may signal a turning point in awareness and spur support for adaptation and mitigation even if it has no direct impact on their property values."

Respondents were asked to report the effects of flood risk on property values in their area. Over half of respondents (57.7%) reported that flood risk has had no impact on property values. More than a quarter of respondents (27%) reported some decrease in property values in their area and 5.7% reported greatly decreased values. 

Responses to the question about property values varied significantly across cities and several demographic variables.  

More Norfolk (47.1%) and Portsmouth (36.2%) residents reported that flooding had a negative effect on property values followed by Virginia Beach (35%), Hampton (30.9%) and Chesapeake (28%). Nearly a quarter of Newport News residents (23.2%) felt that the risk of flooding had decreased property values while only 17% of Suffolk residents felt this way. 

At nearly 40%, African Americans are significantly more likely than white people (29.2%) or those describing themselves as another race (28.6%) to believe that flooding risk has decreased property values in the area where they live. 

In addition, just over a quarter (26.3%) of respondents with bachelor’s degrees or higher reported that the risk of flooding has greatly or somewhat decreased property values where they reside. More than a third of respondents with a high school degree or less (36.1%) responded in the same way, as did respondents with some college or an associate’s degree. 

The survey also found that respondents with lower household incomes reported decreased property values in their area due to risks of flooding. 

“These findings illustrate that it is often marginalized communities that are negatively affected by flooding than more affluent communities, and this is demonstrated by those who are more likely to perceive flooding as a threat to property values,” said Dr. Vandecar-Burdin. 

Residents were asked if flood risk information influenced their decisions about their current housing in Hampton Roads and the majority of residents (73.8%) said the flood risk information did not influence their decisions. Of the respondents who indicated they were influenced by the flood risk information, 62.8% believe flood risks significantly influenced their choice of neighborhood, 37.2% were significantly influenced whether to buy or rent their home and 21.3% reported that flood risks influenced some other aspects of their housing decision. 

You can read the full report on the Social Science Research Center’s webpage.